In the world of fantasy baseball, the ebb and flow of player performance can be as unpredictable as the weather. This week, we're diving into the deep league risers and fallers, with a focus on the NL Central, where the Reds are struggling, and the Pirates are quietly making waves. Let's explore the key players who are on the rise and those who are facing some challenges.
The Fallers
Nathaniel Lowe, Cincinnati Reds
Nathaniel Lowe, a first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds, has been a bit of a disappointment this season. He was a riser back in Week 7, but since then, his performance has been a bit of a rollercoaster. Lowe's batting average has dipped to .230, and his power numbers have taken a hit, with only three homers and nine RBI over 74 at-bats. His struggles are particularly notable in June, where he's batting just .167, which is a cause for concern.
However, there's a silver lining. Lowe has the lowest ground ball rate and the highest line drive rate, fly ball rate, pull %, and air pull percentages of his career. This suggests that he's not just a ground ball hitter, but also has the ability to hit for power. His barrel rate is over 14%, and his hard rate is over 43%, which are impressive numbers. Lowe's xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG are all significantly lower than his actual performance, indicating that he's underperforming his expected stats.
In my opinion, Lowe is still a player worth keeping an eye on. His underlying numbers are strong, and his recent struggles may be a result of bad luck. With a .250 BABIP in June, he's due for a rebound. Lowe's ability to hit for power and his high contact rate make him a player to consider, especially in deeper leagues.
Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins
Connor Prielipp, a starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, had a promising start to the season, with a 2.88 ERA and .96 WHIP over his first five MLB starts. However, his performance has taken a turn for the worse in his next four starts, with an 8.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. He's allowed five homers in his first five games but zero homers in his next four.
Prielipp's struggles are particularly notable against left-handed hitters, who are batting .400 against him. His slider, his most used pitch, has been effective, with hitters batting just .175 against it. However, his four-seamer has been smashed, with a .275 batting average and .425 slugging%.
Prielipp's injury history is also a concern, with a career high of just 82.2 innings pitched. He's already at nearly 60 innings pitched this year, and his next two starts are against St. Louis and Arizona, both of which have had middling offenses. In my opinion, Prielipp is more suited to deeper keeper or dynasty formats, but in 14-team or smaller redraft leagues, he's a streaming option against weaker offenses.
The Risers
Jung Ho Lee, San Francisco Giants
Jung Ho Lee, an outfielder for the San Francisco Giants, was covered back in Week 6. Since then, he's looked much improved, with a .587/.596/.717 batting line over his last 12 games. Lee's contact ability has been impressive, and his expected batting average is the highest in the league.
While Lee's power numbers are not impressive, with just a 2.5% barrel rate and 13% hard hit rate, his ability to make consistent contact and his high expected batting average make him a valuable player. In my opinion, Lee is a player to consider for batting average and runs scored, especially in deeper leagues.
Nick Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates
Nick Gonzales, a second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop for the Pittsburgh Pirates, has been a consistent performer this season. He has a similar player profile to Jung Ho Lee, but is a bit faster and plays multiple infield positions. Gonzales has been helpful all season, with a .360/.385/.560 batting line in June.
Gonzales' power numbers are not impressive, with just a 3.3% barrel rate and 39% hard hit rate. However, his ability to make consistent contact and his high expected batting average make him a valuable player. In my opinion, Gonzales is a safe bet for a stopgap or super utility player, especially in deeper leagues.
The Underrated
Blaze Alexander, Baltimore Orioles
Blaze Alexander, a second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, outfielder, midfielder, and running back for the Baltimore Orioles, is a player to consider for his speed and power. He has a hard hit rate over 47%, and a 92.7 MPH average exit velocity, which ranks in the league's top 10%.
Alexander has been hitting the cover off the ball, with a .433/.471/.767 batting line over the last two weeks. However, he's not playing full time, and his availability is a concern. In my opinion, Alexander is a player to consider for his speed and power, especially in deeper leagues.
Conclusion
In the world of fantasy baseball, the ebb and flow of player performance can be as unpredictable as the weather. This week, we've explored the risers and fallers, with a focus on the NL Central. While some players are struggling, others are quietly making waves. In my opinion, the key to success in fantasy baseball is to stay focused, keep an eye on the players, and make adjustments as needed. Good luck out there, deep leaguers!
